摘要：揭示災(zāi)后經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)和恢復(fù)過程,按照災(zāi)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)韌性科學(xué)制定災(zāi)后經(jīng)濟(jì)重建的調(diào)控政策與恢復(fù)手段,對增強(qiáng)災(zāi)害防范與系統(tǒng)應(yīng)對能力具有重要意義。以汶川地震極重災(zāi)區(qū)為案例,基于長時序社會經(jīng)濟(jì)面板數(shù)據(jù)與ARIMA模型,測算災(zāi)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)韌性指數(shù),并運(yùn)用改進(jìn)的規(guī)模報(bào)酬可變DEA模型、Malmquist生產(chǎn)率指數(shù)分析災(zāi)后年際經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)效率及影響效應(yīng)。結(jié)果顯示:①汶川地震極重災(zāi)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)韌性指數(shù)為0.877,地震導(dǎo)致災(zāi)區(qū)短期經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,但2年內(nèi)恢復(fù)至震前水平,工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)韌性低于農(nóng)業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)。②受災(zāi)當(dāng)年災(zāi)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)綜合效率為0.603,其中,平原丘陵區(qū)綜合效率、純技術(shù)效率、規(guī)模效率均顯著優(yōu)于高原山地區(qū)。③災(zāi)后全要素生產(chǎn)率的年際波動強(qiáng)烈,經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)效率顯著下降造成短期經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,災(zāi)后2年TFP指數(shù)下降33.7%和15.2%后恢復(fù)至穩(wěn)態(tài)。④災(zāi)后恢復(fù)效率顯著下降主因?yàn)榧夹g(shù)變動因素,而生產(chǎn)體系更新程度決定了災(zāi)后經(jīng)濟(jì)韌性。隨著災(zāi)后經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)的規(guī)模收益下降,災(zāi)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)主要依賴純技術(shù)效率,提升純技術(shù)效率是保持災(zāi)后經(jīng)濟(jì)長期增長的動力?？梢?針對重建自然條件和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段的差異性,災(zāi)區(qū)當(dāng)?shù)匦璺e極進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和再適應(yīng),同時,通過生產(chǎn)體系更新提升技術(shù)進(jìn)步水平,以發(fā)揮災(zāi)后大規(guī)模資金、設(shè)施、人力等要素投入的規(guī)模效應(yīng),從而增強(qiáng)應(yīng)對災(zāi)害沖擊的經(jīng)濟(jì)韌性與恢復(fù)效率。